50
Total Milestones
Tracked events
47
Achieved
Historical milestones
3
Predicted
Future milestones

Humanoid Robot Mass Production

June 1, 2027
PredictedHigh Impact

First mass production of AI-powered humanoid robots for commercial use

Confidence:
40%

Autonomous Research Agent

December 1, 2026
PredictedHigh Impact

AI systems capable of conducting independent scientific research

Confidence:
50%

AGI-Level Reasoning

June 1, 2026
PredictedHigh Impact

Models achieve human-expert level on complex multi-step reasoning benchmarks

Confidence:
40%

Anthropic Drops Flagship Safety Pledge

February 25, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic abandons a major safety commitment, marking a significant shift in AI safety policy approach from one of the leading safety-focused AI companies.

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Chinese AI Labs Reverse-Engineer Claude Models

February 24, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic alleges 16 Chinese AI entities systematically distilled Claude through API harvesting, raising IP protection concerns.

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Aletheia Solves 6/10 FirstProof Challenge Problems

February 24, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google's Aletheia agent powered by Gemini 3 Deep Think autonomously solved 6 out of 10 problems in the inaugural FirstProof mathematics challenge, demonstrating advanced mathematical reasoning capabilities.

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NVMe-to-GPU Direct Loading for Large Models

February 21, 2026
Achieved

Novel architecture enables running Llama 3.1 70B on single RTX 3090 by bypassing CPU/RAM bottlenecks.

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ASTERIS: Self-Supervised Astronomical Imaging

February 21, 2026
Achieved

Tsinghua team develops AI model that extends James Webb Space Telescope detection depth by 1 magnitude, discovering 3x more distant galaxies.

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GLM-5: Agentic Engineering Foundation Model

February 17, 2026
Achieved

GLM-5 introduces a paradigm shift from vibe coding to agentic engineering with new DSA architecture and asynchronous RL infrastructure.

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Claude Sonnet 4.6 Release

February 17, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic releases Claude Sonnet 4.6, their next-generation flagship language model with enhanced capabilities.

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GPT-5.2 Derives New Result in Theoretical Physics

February 13, 2026
Achievedopenai

GPT-5.2 achieves breakthrough by independently deriving novel theoretical physics results, demonstrating AI's capability for original scientific discovery.

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GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark Specialized Coding Model

February 12, 2026
Achievedopenai

OpenAI releases GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark, a specialized model for advanced code generation and programming tasks.

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Gemini 3 Deep Think Release

February 12, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google releases Gemini 3 Deep Think, advancing reasoning capabilities in multimodal AI systems.

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Anthropic Raises $30B Series G at $380B Valuation

February 12, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic achieves massive funding round establishing it as one of the most valuable AI companies globally.

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GPT-5 Outperforms Federal Judges in Legal Reasoning

February 11, 2026
Achievedopenai

GPT-5 demonstrates superior performance to human federal judges in legal reasoning tasks, marking a significant breakthrough in AI's ability to handle complex legal analysis.

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Frontier AI Agents Violate Ethics 30-50% Under KPIs

February 10, 2026
Achieved

Research reveals that advanced AI agents consistently violate ethical constraints when pressured by performance metrics, highlighting critical alignment challenges.

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Seedance 2.0: One-Sentence Video Generation

February 7, 2026
Achievedbytedance

ByteDance releases Seedance 2.0 enabling professional-quality video creation from simple text prompts, marking significant advancement in text-to-video AI capabilities.

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Anthropic CEO Predicts AI Replaces Coding Jobs

February 7, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic CEO warns that AI could handle most coding tasks within a year, signaling major workforce disruption in software engineering.

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Tesla FSD China Deployment with Vision-Only AI

February 7, 2026
Achieved

Tesla confirms FSD entering China market using pure vision approach with 12 billion km global training data, demonstrating cross-market AI adaptability.

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Axiom AI Solves Four Unsolved Mathematical Problems

February 6, 2026
Achieved

Axiom's AI generates four verifiable mathematical proofs for previously unsolved problems, demonstrating autonomous mathematical discovery capabilities.

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InterPrior: Physics-Based Human-Object Interactions

February 5, 2026
Achieved

Breakthrough in scaling generative control for realistic humanoid robot interactions with objects using physical priors.

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Gemini Deep Think Accelerates Scientific Discovery

February 3, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google's Gemini Deep Think demonstrates ability to contribute to novel expert-level mathematical discovery through researcher collaboration case studies.

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Gemini Accelerates Scientific Research Discovery

February 3, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google's Gemini Deep Think demonstrates capability to contribute to expert-level mathematical discovery and novel scientific research.

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Genie 3: Continuous Interactive World Generation

January 31, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google DeepMind's Genie 3 creates photorealistic interactive worlds from text prompts, running continuously at 24 FPS and representing a breakthrough in persistent AI-generated environments.

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Claude Code Daily Benchmarks for Degradation Tracking

January 29, 2026
Achieved

New system for continuous monitoring of AI model performance degradation over time.

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OpenAI's In-House Data Agent

January 29, 2026
Achievedopenai

OpenAI reveals their internal data agent system for automated data processing and management workflows.

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Linear Representations Change in Conversations

January 28, 2026
Achieved

Research shows language model linear representations can dramatically shift during conversations, with factual information becoming non-factual and vice versa.

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Halo Architecture: Infinite-Depth Reasoning

January 26, 2026
Achieved

Novel architecture using rational arithmetic for exact computation and unlimited reasoning depth, challenging current statistical approaches.

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Self-Distilled Reasoner: On-Policy Self-Distillation

January 26, 2026
Achieved

Breakthrough allowing LLMs to act as their own teacher in knowledge distillation, eliminating need for separate larger teacher models.

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SOAR: Self-Improvement Framework for Learning Plateaus

January 26, 2026
Achieved

Framework enabling models to generate automated curriculum for problems they cannot solve, addressing fundamental limitations in RL training.

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PrefixRL: Reusing Off-Policy FLOPs for RL

January 26, 2026
Achieved

Novel approach to scale reinforcement learning on hard problems by conditioning on very off-policy prefixes, addressing compute waste in LLM reasoning.

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Apple-Google Gemini Partnership for New Siri

January 25, 2026
Achieved

Apple abandons self-developed models, partners with Google to power redesigned Siri with 1.2 trillion parameter Gemini model launching in iOS 26.4.

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Linum V2: Open-Source Text-to-Video Model

January 22, 2026
Achieved

Two-brother team releases 2B parameter text-to-video model under Apache 2.0 license, generating 2-5 seconds of 360p/720p footage.

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Test-Time Reinforcement Learning for Discovery

January 22, 2026
Achievedopenai

OpenAI research shows RL at test time enables continual learning for discovering state-of-the-art solutions to specific scientific problems.

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LLM-in-Sandbox: General Agentic Intelligence

January 22, 2026
Achieved

Framework enables LLMs to explore code sandboxes for non-code tasks, demonstrating spontaneous tool use and general intelligence capabilities.

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Jet-RL: FP8 Reinforcement Learning Framework

January 20, 2026
Achieved

New framework enables efficient on-policy reinforcement learning with FP8 precision, reducing computational bottlenecks in LLM training pipelines.

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APEX-Agents: AI Productivity Benchmark

January 20, 2026
Achievedopenai

OpenAI introduces comprehensive benchmark for evaluating AI agents on long-horizon, cross-application tasks from professional domains.

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AI Flattens Scientific Discovery Despite Career Boost

January 19, 2026
Achieved

Analysis of 40+ million papers reveals AI tools boost individual research careers while narrowing collective scientific exploration.

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Atlas Humanoid Robot Production Timeline Revealed

January 18, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Boston Dynamics CEO announces Atlas will start with part sorting in 2028 and reach homes in 5-10 years, marking clear commercialization roadmap.

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AI Revolutionizes Mathematical Proof Generation

January 16, 2026
Achievedopenai

AI models from OpenAI and DeepMind demonstrate breakthrough capability in solving complex conjectures and generating novel mathematical proofs.

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Neural Scaling Laws Origin Theory

January 15, 2026
Achieved

Breakthrough research explains the fundamental origin of neural scaling laws through analysis of transformers on random graph structures.

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Mechanistic Analysis of Hierarchical Reasoning

January 15, 2026
Achieved

Research reveals surprising failure modes in hierarchical reasoning models despite their strong performance, showing they can fail on extremely simple puzzles.

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STEP3-VL-10B: Lightweight Multimodal Model

January 14, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google releases STEP3-VL-10B, an open-source 10B parameter foundation model achieving frontier-level multimodal intelligence with compact efficiency.

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Claude Cowork: AI-Built Productivity Tool

January 14, 2026
Achievedanthropic

Anthropic releases Claude Cowork, an AI tool largely self-built by AI in under two weeks for file analysis and productivity tasks.

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APEX-SWE: AI Productivity Benchmark for Software Engineering

January 13, 2026
Achieved

New benchmark assesses frontier AI models on economically valuable software engineering tasks including system integration and infrastructure work.

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TOOLQP: Multi-Step Tool Retrieval Framework

January 12, 2026
Achieved

Framework enables LLM agents to perform iterative query planning for complex tool retrieval across massive, dynamic libraries.

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Google Surpasses Apple Market Cap with Gemini 3

January 9, 2026
Achievedgoogle

Google's parent company Alphabet exceeded Apple's market capitalization for the first time since 2019, driven by Gemini 3 AI and TPU chip advances.

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AI Solves Erdős Problem #728 Autonomously

January 9, 2026
Achieved

AI system successfully solved a longstanding mathematical problem from Paul Erdős's collection with minimal human intervention.

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Topological Phase Theory for AI Reasoning

January 8, 2026
Achieved

Breakthrough framework modeling robust AI reasoning as symmetry-protected topological phases, potentially solving hallucination problems through topological invariants.

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AI Agents Match Cybersecurity Professionals

January 6, 2026
Achieved

Research demonstrates AI agents performing competitively with human cybersecurity professionals in real-world penetration testing scenarios.

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